1.} tus nqi ua haujlwm thiab kis cov yam ntxwv
| Taw tes | LME London Aluminium | Shanghai Txhuas | Cov tsav tsheb sib txawv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lo Lus Kawg | 2442.00 USD / tuj (Tsib Hlis 30) | 13,805 rmb / tuj (kwv yees li. 1930} usd) | Shanghai-London Piv: 8.19 (Raws li RMB-USD Txauv Tus Nqi) |
| Tus nqi sib | Oscillating mus sab hauv (txhua lub lim tiam: 2430-2497} usd) | Kuj muaj zog | Txoj cai hauv tsev txoj cai txhawb nqa vs .} tsis muaj zog thoob ntiaj teb |
| Kis tau kev txhawb nqa | Muaj kev cuam tshuam thoob ntiaj teb / kev thov thiab USD nqi | Tsav los ntawm cov cai hauv kev coj noj coj ua haujlwm thiab sib txauv cov nqi | RMB Depreciation Widens Lub Shanghai-London Kis Tau |
{{02. sib piv ntawm cov khoom lag luam ua haujlwm
| Kev sib pauv | Cov Lus Nug Theem | Hloov Hloov | Kev Lag Luam Teeb Phuam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lme | 384,575 tons (Tsib Hlis 23) | Tsis yeem rau yim lub lis piam sib law liag, ntaus ob xyoos qes | Khoom Siv Tight txhawb LME Aluminium nqi . |
| Ntiab tawm | 141,289 tons (Tsib Hlis 23) | Tsis yeem rau yim lub lis piam sib law liag, ntaus ib xyoos qis | Txoj kev ua haujlwm nrawm tau synchronized tab sis lub hauv paus tau txawv . NCO TSEG: Lub sijhawm poob rau hauv cov khoom ua lag luam hauv cov khoom lag luam LME tau hais txog 46% vs {% rau shanghai aluminium) . |
3.Kev sib txawv ntawm cov tub ntxhais cuam tshuam cov yam ntxwv
Cov cai thiab cov se
LME: cuam tshuam los ntawm Asmeskas cov phiaj xwm kom nce Aluminium se rau Lub Rau Hli 2025), kev sib txawv ntawm lub Rau Hli 2025),}} {4 4 {4 4}
Shanghai Alicies yog ruaj khov, thiab indirect xa tawm (xws li photovoltaic modules) hilled} hloov tus nqi thiab tus nqi
London Aluminium yog denominated nyob rau hauv Asmeskas las, Shanghai Aluminium yog cuam tshuam hauv RMB, thiab kev txo nqi ntawm RMB tau thawb lub Shanghai-London8.0-8.4);
EU cov neeg ua lag luam hauv ciam teb (cbam) tau nce tus nqi export ntawm London Aluminium, thiab Shanghai Txhuas Cuam Tshuam .
Muab thiab thov kom muaj cov qauv
London Aluminium: tsis muaj Europe European av tau suppressed thov, thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov kev txiav txim siab (suav nyiaj rau 6% ntawm EU tsis muaj zog;
Shanghai Aluminium: Lub zog xav tau rau lub zog tshiab (CAGR
4.} Kev Tiv Thaiv Cov Sijhawm thiab Kev Pheej Ywg
Lub tswv yim ua rau cov lus ceeb toom kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai
Positive arbitrage Shanghai-London ratio>8.3 (Ntshuam Qhov rai qhib) Asmeskas TarFF Escalation suppresses Lme Aluminium hwm
Rov Qab Shanghai-London Piv Txwv<8.0 (export profits appear) Unexpected accumulation of domestic inventories suppresses Shanghai aluminum
{{05. Cov ntsiab lus pom tseem ceeb hauv lub neej tom ntej
Cov Kev Siv Nodes: Kev siv ntawm 50% TARIFF hauv Tebchaws Meskas (Lub Rau Hli 4, 2025), kev nce qib ntawm Lavxias aluminium txhuas; Cov ntsiab lus piav qhia: Yog LME cov lus teb poob qis dua 350, {{{}}}}} tons, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev phom sij nyem; Kev hloov pauv: RMB Txauv Tus Nqi 7.2 yuav ua rau Shanghai-London piv txwv los saum 8.5
